Extra! Extra! The US dollar has buckled its long term uptrend? Will it head south now? On today’s chart is my recent take on the US dollar index. For quite some time now, the US dollar had been gaining a lot of favors from investors due to the general bearish tone in the markets. The last time I reported on the USDX, the index’s uptrend was still very much intact despite its retracement from its yearly high (kindly see my previous post here). Just this week, though, the index’s long term uptrend line got broken. The only support now that is holding it at its present value is the 61.% Fibonacci retracement level that I drew. A break of this level could send it down to 82.00 or at 81.00. But given the doji candles and its oversold condition, the index could move sideways for awhile or even rebound. If it rallies, the immediate resistance would be the former uptrend line.
Anyway, given the recent string of strong rallies in the global equities and in the non-dollar currencies like the euro, the greenback appears to have lost its appeal. Remember that bulk of the USDX counter-weight is composed of the euro. Therefore an increase in the euro, would negatively affect the valuation of the index and the dollar. During the last couple of weeks, the euro has gained some support. Technically, it even has a higher chance now of moving north after it broke above its long term downtrend line against the USD (see the chart here).
On the fundamental front, the USD further weakened yesterday as a result of the stellar earnings figures from Intel. The USD’s slide and consequently the global markets’ advance could be extended today since another US giant is set to post its 2Q earnings. Later today, Google is expected to post an EPS of 6.53 for the second leg of the year. Tomorrow, a couple of big US banks, Bank of America and Citigroup, are due to post their earnings report as well.