Good day forex peeps! Here’s my ‘weekly’ update on the USDCHF pair. As you can see from the chart, the pair has returned back in the area of the inverted head and shoulders after it broke out and reached a high of 1.1731 last June 1. It then suffered 5 straight weeks of heavy declines after reaching the mentioned high (click here to see my previous post). At present, the pair is hanging on the 1.0500 support. Should this support gives way, the pair could race towards its previous low just below 1.0200. The swissy could even be on parity again with the greenback if the pair breaks below 1.0200. A couple of indicators, though, indicate that it could head higher. During the past two weeks, the pair has drawn a bullish hammer and a doji, both of which suggest a possible reversal to the upside. The presence of a bullish divergence, where the price goes higher and the stochastics go lower, also suggest a likely move north. But if the pair indeed rebounds, it could still meet some resistance at the neckline of the former inverted head and shoulder. A break above this could send it back to its 1.1731 high.
On the fundamental front, despite the recent favor for the greenback due to the markets’ present bullish outlook and the US’s firms’ expected stellar earnings reports, the Swissy could still lose some support if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decides to interfere in the forex market to weaken the CHF. The SNB, for those who does not know, is very notorious in doing so. In fact, interfering in the markets is one of its major tools in keeping the Swiss economy in check. The SNB favors a weak currency because Switzerland is highly dependent on exports. A strong currency, therefore, could dampen the country’s exports market. In the bank’s last statement, it mentioned that the strength of the CHF has not affected the economy in a negative sense. but that was then. After the USDCHF pair marked a 1.1731 high, the Swissy has rebounded strongly by about 1,200 pips. Therefore, there’s always an outside chance that the bank could sooner or later purposely weaken its currency. If it does not, then the CHF could continue its upside ride as the global market rebounds.