Surprise Earnings Bolstered the Shares of UBS – July 28, 2010

UBS, a diversified global financial services company, soared by 8.91% to $16.50 per share yesterday when the company reported a better-than-expected second quarter earnings. Sentiment on the stock was downbeat during the second quarter as evidenced by the stock’s decline because of the scare that was brought about by the debt crisis in the euro zone. Business especially among financial firms may have been subdued at that time because of the reluctance of the banks to trade and even lend out. Still, the bank, alongside some other banks like Deutsche, was able to beat the market’s earnings forecast.

The surprise upside in the company’s earnings caused its shares to gap up. As you can see from the chart, it actually beat the odds by breaking above the rising wedge formation instead of breaking down. Remember that a rising wedge is usually a bearish pattern which only indicate a rally prices. Yesterday’s price action, however, made me somewhat bullish on the stock now than before since the move allowed it to escape the 200-day moving average net. But with the RSI in the extreme overbought level, UBS could range or even retrace for awhile before making a move towards its previous high at just above 17.50. If it weakens, the resistance of the rising wedge, the bottom of the gap, and the 200-day moving average should keep it from falling any further.

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