Hiyo my avid forex fans! In my previous article about the euro, I mentioned that its recent rally after breaking down from what appears to be a head and shoulders formation could be over soon. However, a full blown breakdown and a reversal did not really pan out as the euro bulls were able to out-muscle the bears to place them back on top. As you can see from the EURUSD’s 4-hour chart, the bears were forced to cover their short positions when the price of the euro went back above the neckline of the head and shoulders. The pair actually found support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which interestingly lies almost in line with the psychological 1.2600 marker. For awhile, it met some resistance at the neckline and it even fell below the support of the rising wedge (please see my previous post here). But like I said, the euro was able to turn the tide to its favor.
Yesterday, the fiber of the EURUSD broke out from a bullish pennant pattern. Though, it would more likely range for awhile before making a move north. The stochastics, being in the overbought region, also suggests a temporary pause in its ascent. If its able to move past the resistance at 1.2900 then its next stop would be at 1.3000. A move past 1.3000 could propel it higher all the way to the peak of the head of the former formation.
The better-than-expected US employment report pushed the anti-dollar currencies like the EUR back into the spotlight. US firms only slashed 54,000 jobs as compared to the 101,000 estimate. The job cuts in the previous month were also revised downwards to 54,000 from 131,000. Still, the US’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.6% from 9.5%. Nonetheless, the encouraging jobs numbers (compared to the market’s consensus) lifted the investors risk appetite during the session.
No high impact economic reports are due this week in the euro zone. The euro, however, could take its cue from the developments in the other nations particularly in Australia, Canada, and the UK. Australia, the UK, and Canada will have their monetary policy decision this week. Australia and the UK are expected to keep their rates unchanged while Canada is anticipated to hike. Any hikes and/or hawkish statements could favor the non-dollar currencies including the euro.