Welcome to another day of Forex trading! In today’s FX feature, I present to you an update on the US dollar index (USDX). A little more than a week ago I already warned the dollar bulls of a likely take over by the bears (kindly see it here). And guess from, since September 28, the USDX has already fallen from 79.57 to 77.34. The 77.00 support, however, had kept the index from falling. Given this and its oversold condition, the index may range for awhile or even rally before continuing its descent. A move south in the near term is likely since the downside target (estimated by projecting the height of the head and shoulders pattern from the point of breakout) has not yet been achieved. Moreover, the length of its recent down move has still to equal the length of the head of the previous pattern. A break of the 77.00 level would push the index down to around 74.00.
Later at 12:30 pm GMT, a high level of volatility is expected to hit the market because of the release of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report in the US. For the month of September, US firms are seen to have added 1,000 jobs. During the previous month, about 54,000 were laid off. If the number of employment has indeed improved, then expect a rise in optimism which, however, would be detrimental for the greenback. But based on ADP’s estimate which was published earlier this week, US firms had surprisingly cut about 39,000 jobs as against the 23,000 forecasted increase in hiring. The ADP’s estimate is not always accurate but if a decrease in employment is printed, optimism would diminish which would attract investors back to the safety of the USD in the short term.