Hiya, did I catch your attention? Well, looks like it’s a “Yes” but I’m just kidding with the title guys! Anyway, on the canvas is my technical analysis update on the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (^PSEi) which already dropped more than 10% of its value this month of November alone and could continue to do so. During yesterday’s trading session, the ^PSEi broke down from the 4,000.00 psychological level and like I mentioned on my previous post (kindly check this), if [Read more…] about Goodbye PSEi!!!
Archives for November 2010
For the past week or so, the US dollar has rallied strongly against its major peers thanks to the drama in Ireland and in the Korean peninsula. Ireland needed about €85 billion ($114 billion) to help service its ballooning [Read more…] about The End of the US Dollar’s Rally?
Hey guys, here’s my technical analysis update on the Australian dollar against the US dollar (AUD/USD) or the “Aussie” as some people call it. The Australian and US dollar were at par last month (kindly check this) then an all-time high of 1.0183 was made on November 5. However, the Aussie started declining by a thousand pips to an 8-week low of 0.9584 because of the Ireland banking crisis then followed up by the potential North-South Korea war last week. Fortunately for [Read more…] about The Aussie Could Head North Once Again
The US equities and bonds markets bounced back yesterday following the release of several encouraging economic reports. The rally in the markets occurred a day after a sell-off occurred due to the recent military conflict between North and South Korea. Traders initially found confidence when Germany’s business climate, as measured in the German Ifo business climate index, unexpectedly improved with the index rising to to 109.3 from 107.7. The index was initially seen to weaken to 107.6. Of course, this surprise came amid the current drama in Ireland which I will talk about in my next article so watch out for that! [Read more…] about US Markets Rallied Ahead of Thanksgiving!
Hello traders from all parts of the world! My forex pick for the day is the EURUSD pair or “fiber” as many would call it. As you can see, the Euro has been strong against the greenback since it broke out from the cup and handle formation last September (kindly check here). Afterwards, a bullish symmetrical triangle formed, broke out to follow through the upward momentum and reach the 1.4282 9-month high last November 4 (kindly see it here). However, the Euro now sank against the US Dollar dropping by a thousand pips since the beginning of this Month. Key factors highly involved in demoting the pair’s value include the [Read more…] about EURO Still On An Uptrend Against The US Dollar
Anyeonghaseyo! The present political and military conditions particularly in the orient are very shaky given the recent artillery attack to South Korea by its neighbor up north. Yesterday (November 23), the world, especially South Korea, was caught off guard when NoKor bombarded Yeonpyeong Island with artillery shells, killing at least 2 and hurting dozens. SoKor, of course, was then forced to return fire and to scramble their fighter planes for defense. North Korea’s attack, by the way, came after [Read more…] about North Korea Aids the US Dollar
Hello beer lovers! When you hear the word “San Miguel”, the first thing that comes into your mind is the awesome beer they produce. However, I’m not here to discuss about their beer but instead show you the outstanding movement of the San Miguel stocks. Before that, for those who do not know, San Miguel Brewery Inc. or SMB in the Philippine Stock Exchange is the producer of the world-famous San Miguel Beer (ligh, premium and pale pilsen). They also produce the Red Horse Beer and the malt-based non-alcoholic drink, Cali. Anyway, the SMB stocks have been [Read more…] about Don’t You Just Love San Miguel!
Good day FX friends! I’m back and kicking once again! Anyway, in today’s forex pick is a technical update on the USDSGD pair – that’s the greenback versus the Singapore dollar. In case you do not know, the Singapore dollar (SGD) has been gradually beating the US dollar‘s ass since March of 2009 much like what Manny Pacquiao was doing to Antonio Margarito in their fight last November 13. Notice, however, that the Sing’s ascent over the US dollar has hastened by [Read more…] about Medium Term Reversal on the Singapore Dollar?
Hi guys, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (^PSEi) has finally corrected after an incredible run since September of this year. From around the 3,600.00 level, it rose all the way to an all-time high of 4,413.42 last November 5 (here’s my last post on it). However, seems like many traders have taken hefty profits after the remarkable run which caused the index to correct. At the same time, major indices from the global stock market such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) corrected as well. In less than 2 weeks, the PSEi nearly loss 10% of its value from the 4,413.42 all-time high to the current value of 4,069.31. Regardless, this is [Read more…] about PSEi Finally Corrects!
Roughly a month ago, the Philippine Peso together with many other currencies were trading strongly against the US dollar. If you look at the dollar-to-peso chart (USD/PHP), the peso even reached a high of P41.991 versus the greenback last November 4 and I mentioned this possibility in my previous analysis (kindly check this). However, the P42.00 marker proved to be resilient, at least at that time, as the dollar rebounded off of it. At present, the Philippine Peso is trading back at around P43.70. Several technical factors, though, indicate that the dollar’s rally could be over and the peso could appreciate once more. As mentioned, the peso is exchanging at around the P43.70 level which used to be a former support. [Read more…] about Santa to Send the Philippine Peso Back to P42.00 Vs. the US Dollar?
Hello guys, for the boxing fans out there I compiled all the HBO’s 24/7 episodes, weigh-in and fight card of the Manny Pacquiao vs Antonio Margarito fight. Their fight is set for November 13, 2010 in the Cowboys Stadium at Arlington, Texas. Enjoy!
Main Card: (televised LIVE on pay-per-view)
* WBC World Super Welterweight Championship bout: Manny Pacquiao (Philippines) vs Antonio Margarito (Mexico)
– NABA/NABO/WBC Continental Americas Welterweight Championship bout:Mike Jones (USA) vs [Read more…] about Manny Pacquiao Vs Antonio Margarito: Complete Episodes Of HBO’s 24/7, Weigh In Video And Fight Card List
Good day ladies and gents of FX trading! In today’s forex pick is the daily canvas of the EURUSD pair a.k.a the “fiber”. The last time I posted on this was when it broke out from the bullish symmetrical triangle formation (kindly see this) and made a new 10-month high at 1.4248. However, as you can see from its chart, the EURUSD has slipped for a fifth straight day today after marking that high. Those who are long on the euro and short on the greenback, however, should [Read more…] about Euro to Get Back on the Bullish Track
Hello finance peeps! Today I’m going to talk about crude oil. If you have been tuned in to the markets for the last several months, perhaps you know or at least have heard from someone that commodities like gold and silver have recently marked their new historical highs. But unlike those two metals, the people’s “black gold” managed to stay out of the radar. In fact, during the time when both gold and silver were making new highs after another, the price of crude oil has only traded sideways – between $70.000 per barrel and $87.350. [Read more…] about Will Crude Oil Follow Gold’s Path?
Another breakout alert Forex peeps! But my forex pick is the British pound! If you want to check out my breakout alert on the EURUSD a few days ago, kindly check this. Chart-wise, the Cable or the GBPUSD pair has recently broken out from a cup and handle continuation pattern. A cup and handle pattern, as the name suggests, takes the shape of a cup (a bowl-like price action) with a small handle to its left. The price would most likely head higher especially now that it is able to move past the 1.6000 resistance (where the cup’s rim or the neckline also lies). So judging by the [Read more…] about British Pound To Swing Higher
Hello financial market friends! I have here the update on my analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). This index is looking good, well at least based on its chart. The last time I mentioned about this was last October 11 during the Columbus day, kindly check this post. Also, if you want to check the one last September 22, it’s in this post. Earlier, the Fed planned to pump $600 billion into the financial system to stimulate the economy in large part by lowering mortgage and other interest rates. This could be good for the US stocks and bonds. However, it won’t be favorable for the US currency as US Dollars could turn out flooding the market. The report prompted different currencies to strengthen against the weakening US Dollar (here’s the analysis). For example, 1.00 Australian Dollar is now equal to 1.008 US Dollar when they were just at parity the other day (kindly see this post). On a side not, the Federal Funds rate was decided to be held at 0.25% which they have been doing lately and will be continuing to do until it’s sure that the US economy is growing. Although, this raises inflation concerns to other analysts. The market turned out to be extremely volatile during the Fed rate decision and the FOMC statement.
Chart-wise, my outlook on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is one of the US market benchmarks, could be bullish. As for my technical analysis, I spotted this 2-year cup and handle formation. By the way, a cup and handle formation is naturally bullish, it could be a reversal or a continuation pattern as well. The only way to find out if the pattern is indeed a cup and handle if the index moves past above the neckline. If it does, it could rise and find some selling pressure at the next resistance around the 12,000.00 psychological level. Furthermore, if that marker gets cleared out, the next resistance it could aim for is around the 13,000.00 area. On the opposite note, in case the ^DJI fails to resume its ascend, the significant support could be the 11,000.00 psychological level. If that fails to hold the index from further declining, the next support could be the 19-month uptrend.
The Australian dollar is finally at par with the greenback! Just today, the AUDUSD pair touched and even moved above the magical 1.0000 number after breaking out from a symmetrical triangle. Back in October 4, I asked whether the AUDUSD had the legs to reach for the parity level (kindly see it here). At that time, the pair had just broken out from a rare broadening right triangle formation. The pair then continued to move north before moving sideways for almost two weeks. The inevitable occurred and luckily for the Aussie bulls, the pair broke out to the upside. At present, the Aussie is now trading at just above 1.0000, it’s first time in history to be at that level. And based on my technical estimate (gauged by projecting the height of the smaller triangle upward), it could at least reach 1.0150. A more promising target would be as high as 1.0700 which is measured based on the height of the larger broadening pattern.
Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly hiked its interest rate to 4.75% from 4.50% which effectively pushed the Aussie towards uncharted territory against the US dollar. The central bank sees inflation to rise at a faster pace over the medium term. One tool to prevent a rapid rise in prices is of course to increase the market’s interest rates. The increase makes the Aussie more appealing to investors because of its higher yields compared to the meager 0.25% of the greenback. More robust Australian economy, higher RBA interest rates, talks of additional QE measures by the Fed, plus the overall negative sentiment on the dollar have been working well for the AUDUSD, making it the best candidate for carry trade as of the moment. If these factors remain then the demand for the pair would more likely increase as well.
Calling all euro bulls! The EURUSD pair or the “fiber” as what some people call it has just broken out from a symmetrical triangle. As you can see from its daily chart of this forex pick of mine, the pair has actually reversed its downtrend when it escaped from a cup and handle pattern. It then continued to trade strong before consolidating into a symmetrical triangle for the last two weeks. Given this recent price action, though, I can say that buying the euro and selling the US dollar at the same time would be a better idea at least from a technical point of view. Such breakout could propel the pair up until it hits some resistance at 1.4250 or even at 1.4300. That’s at least a 200-pip upside in the near term. Not bad! On a different perspective, you might want to chance upon my colleague’s target price in his post.
The remaining days of this week would be crucial for the EURUSD. A high degree of volatility is expected in all currency pairs especially the fiber because of the US Federal monetary policy decision tomorrow and the release of the US’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. There has been talks that the Fed would engage into another non-traditional money printing activities (quantitative easing) in the days to come in its desire to further ease the day-to-day market interest rates in order to encourage more lending and spending. Puff Daddy predicted it correctly – “More money, more problems.” Of course the problem here is reflected on the greenback as its valuation gets diluted by the increase in money supply. Friday’s NFP will likewise create some noise. Based on the recent estimates, about 65,000 jobs were added by US firms in the last month as against the 95,000 that got laid off in the previous period. If this figure is correct, then such would spark optimism among market participants, causing them to continue supporting non-dollar currencies like the euro.
Hello guys, welcome to another day of trading! Here’s an update on the stocks of Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI as its ticker symbol) which is one of the leading residential property developers in the Philippines. I posted this stock pick of mine last September 14 when it had been going up after breaking out from the 1-year symmetrical triangle formation (kindly see that post in this link). The stocks have now been consolidating for more than a month after the run. As it moves sideways, there is a possible mini-triangle formation setting up on the chart. We could expect this 2-month triangle to be bullish as it’s coming from an uptrend. If FLI is indeed bullish and breaks out from the triangle, it could head up but would encounter some selling pressure at the 1.50 peso resistance. In case that gets breached, the next resistance it could aim for is 1.68 pesos. On the other hand, if the stocks breakdown from the pattern which is more unlikely to happen, the immediate support could be 1.31 pesos. If that marker fails to hold the price from further dropping, the next support could be the 19-month uptrend. Regardless, like I always say, as long as the uptrend remains intact, I’d stay bullish on this overall. Have a great day!