Good day ladies and gents of FX trading! In today’s forex pick is the daily canvas of the EURUSD pair a.k.a the “fiber”. The last time I posted on this was when it broke out from the bullish symmetrical triangle formation (kindly see this) and made a new 10-month high at 1.4248. However, as you can see from its chart, the EURUSD has slipped for a fifth straight day today after marking that high. Those who are long on the euro and short on the greenback, however, should not worry too much as the pair could turn back and head north again. At present, the pair is trading just above the 1.3700 support. Notice how this level acted as a resistance early this year before switching its role in to a support. A doji candle, which represents indecision between buyers and sellers, can also be seen. Now, an occurrence of a doji following days of sell-off could be bullish since it signals that buyers are starting to pick up the euro. Moreover, a hidden bullish divergence, where the price registers higher lows and the stochastics mark lower lows, is also present. This suggests that traders could soon push the euro higher.
Fundamentally, Germany’s third quarter GDP report on Friday will be the highlight of this week as far as the euro is concerned. Germany, which takes up about a third of the entire output of the eurozone, is seen to have grown by another 0.8% after posting a 2.2% growth in the second quarter. Now, the DAX or the German stock index, which consists the 30 biggest German companies that are trading in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, has risen from an opening of 5,885.61 in July to close at 6,229.02 in September. During the previous 3 months, the index dropped from 6,189.38 to 5.965.52. So if the index indeed acts as a leading barometer of the health of Germany’s economy, then the rise in DAX from July to September should fair and reflect better on the country’s actual GDP growth for the same quarter. Contrast that to the 2.2% expansion in Germany’s GDP despite a slide in the DAX during the same period. Given these factors, an upside in Germany’s 3Q score is then possible. The euro could get another boost if the actual GDP data exceeds the market’s forecast. Tune in!