The holiday season must have really great for those who are long on the Australian. The month of November was not particularly well since the AUDUSD pair has slid by 640 pips after marking a historical high at 1.0183 and bottoming at 0.9537. Since then, the Aussie has rebounded off its long term uptrend line and just today it has already surpassed its previous high to mark a new all-time high at 1.0198. With the stochastics indicating an overbought condition, will the Aussie be able to push itself forward? Or will the previous high’s gravity pull it back down?
Two things can happen here. End of the year window dressing by major corporations could spark a year-end rally in the equities market. Optimism arising from such could then lead traders to higher yielding assets (equities) and currencies like the Australian dollar and away from the low-yielding ones like the USD, effectively pushing the AUDUSD pair up. Positive fundamental data from the US’ initial jobless claims for the week ending December 25, which is seen to taper to 416,000 from 420,000, could also build up investor confidence. On the flip side, flat trading because of the holiday break, year-end book consolidation by forex participants, and softer than projected November pending home sales in the US (1.8% from 10.4%) could dampen the market’s and the Aussie’s support. Nonetheless, the bias remains positive at least for the Australian dollar given its long term uptrend.