Hi guys, here’s an update of Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI) which is my stock pick in the Philippine Stock Exchange. They are also one of the leading residential property developers in the Philippines. Anyway, last June, FLI was still setting up the symmetrical triangle formation in its stock chart (kindly check here for my post about it). Last Wednesday, the stock price tried to break out from the triangle with a 8.2% gain but went back inside two trading days after (indicated by the red circle). If it manages to fully break above the triangle’s resistance and head northbound, some selling pressure could be encountered at the 1.08-1.10 level. If that gets cleared out, 1.33 pesos could be the next resistance. On the downside, if the stocks of Filinvest Land Inc. would just continue to consolidate inside the triangle, the immediate support could be 0.95 pesos. If the price further drops below the 0.95 peso marker, the next support could be 0.86 pesos.
Philippine Stock Pick: Filinvest Land Inc. – August 1, 2010
PSEi Weekend Update – August 1, 2010
Hi guys! Back in my last technical analysis on the chart of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), I thought there was an ascending channel breakout that took place (kindly check here). Apparently, what looked to be a breakout really wasn’t a breakout but more of a bounce from a new resistance so I had to do some adjustments on the ascending channel. Right now, the PSEi is still in a bullish mode as the uptrend is still intact and has been for 15 months now. While the bears aren’t around, the index could further climb and head to 3,514.74. If that marker gets cleared out, the next resistance could be 3,667.74. Well, as I always say, as long as the uptrend remains intact, the ascend of this index would most likely continue. However, assuming the uptrend gets broken, the immediate support could be 3,281.38. If a further slip from that area takes place, the ascending channel’s support could prevent the PSEi from a further drop.
Critical Time For the Euro Tonight – July 30, 2010
Good day forex fans! Here’s a closer look on the EURUSD pair. Actually, the pair has continued to rise and has even broken the 1.3000 resistance. Back in my last post about it back in July 26 (kindly see it here), I mentioned that a break above 1.300 could propel it further north. Well, the pair has risen for awhile and even touched the 1.3100 level briefly. Though, it has retraced back around 1.3000 again. At present, the pair is just trading above the mentioned level which consequently is where the uptrend line lies. Now, it becomes more crucial since a break of the uptrend line could send it down to 1.2800 or even at 1.2700. But if the 1.3000 support and the uptrend line holds, the pair could be on north bound once again.
Earlier today, the euro has lost its appeal versus the dollar due to the unexpected decline in Germany’s retail sales (-0.9%) for the month of June after it posted a 3.0% gain in May. Moreover, news that Spain’s Aaa rating may be downgraded by at most 2 level by the international ratings agency, Moody’s also placed more selling pressure on the EUR. Remember that other countries in the euro zone like Spain, Portugal, and Italy, aside from Greece, are also suffering from fiscal difficulty. At present, the Spanish government is still trying to slash their budget deficit, which is the third largest in the euro zone. It already received credit downgrades from Standard and Poor’s and Fitch back in April and May. If Moody’s follows suit, then the confidence in the euro zone’ economy and the euro could take another blow.
But that’s for the coming week or so.
For today, the EUR could experience some volatility upon the release of the US’s second quarter GDP report. The US’s growth for the second leg of the year is seen to have slowed to 2.5% from 2.7%. Several other data indeed point to a reduction in growth or even worse. For one, durable goods orders including the core figure have unexpectedly dropped in June by 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively. New home sales likewise dipped by a hopping 30% in May. May retail sales have also dropped by about 1.0%. In case Us’s 2Q GDP comes in as projected, the EURUSD could just trade in a range bound fashion. A worse than anticipated outcome, however, could spark some risk aversion which would lead investors to back to the safety of the USD. Stay tune for the report tonight at 12:30 pm GMT!
Nikkei’s Mini Breakout – July 29, 2010
The Nikkei 225 is the major stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). By the way, the Tokyo Stock Exchange – the total market capitalization of its listed companies makes it the second largest stock exchange in the world next to the New York Stock Exchange. Thus, whatever happens to the country as exhibited in this stock exchange definitely has a huge impact on the global stock markets. The Nikkei 225 is also the leading barometer of Japan’s economy along with the Topix. Some of the famous companies listed in the TSE are Sony, Toyota and Honda.
The Nikkei has broken out from its 3-month downtrend (indicated by the red circle) and could now head up north. However, it could encounter several resistances through its journey and the immediate one could be 9,807.36. If that marker gets cleared out, the next resistance could be 10,251.90. If the index suddenly starts marching towards the south-bound direction, the immediate support could be 9,176.12. If it slips and slides further below the 9,176.12 level, the next support could be the 9,000.00 psychological area.
Visa Profits! – July 29, 2010
Visa Inc., one of the world’s largest credit and debit card processing company where you can pay using digital currency instead of cash and checks, posted a $716 million profit for the 2nd leg of this year. This American company’s earnings were boosted as consumer spending via credit cards increased. However, their stocks closed down 1.87% to $75.18 during yesterday’s trading session.
Chart-wise, Visa stocks (V as the ticker symbol in the New York Stock Exchange) aren’t in good condition as they are pointed downwards. If the stocks push further down it could encounter some support at the $70.00-71.00 area. If it breaks below those levels, the next support could be $68.29. On the upside, if the stocks manage to reverse its current situation and head up, it could hit the $77.00-78.00 resistance. Upon passing above that area, the next resistance could be $83.79.
Gold Bubble Popped?! – July 29, 2010
Say what?! Yeah.. You read that correctly. After making a bullish run for the longest time and even marking new historical highs one after another, gold apparently has just lost its upward momentum. In my last post about it back in June 28 (kindly see it here), gold was pretty much in fashion as it just registered a new historical high of just above $1,250.00 per ounce. But as you can see on today’s weekly chart, its bullish run appears to have come to an end. Notice that it has just broken its long term uptrend line which started way back in October of 2008. At present, gold is sitting just above the $1,150.00 support. A break below this could be disastrous as it could fall all the way down to $1,050.00 or even at $1,000.00. In case gold manages to hang on, it could still aim for its previous high just ab0ve $1,250.00. But with the stochastics still far from being oversold, gold, still has some room south to cover.
As I’ve discussed previously, the increase in the demand for gold in the last several months was primarily due from the risk aversion in the financial market. You see, gold’s intrinsic value makes it one of the best assets out there that can protect the investors’ money from inflation in times of market unrest. And as you know, investors at that time was so tentative given the debt crisis in Europe and the weak showing of the US economy.
The situation and the sentiment now, however, are different. The market has since been rallying, buoyed by strong corporate earnings in the US and robust economic data from both the US and Europe. If the market continues to rally then the demand for the safer investments such as gold would likely diminish. The market, for the last months, may have exaggerated the effects of the credit crisis in Europe to the global economy. But as evidenced in the surprise earnings of the banks in Europe and the US, the effect of the crisis on their business was not that much.
So if gold starts its descent, then the mining industry particularly those companies that are producing gold could also take a hit. Of course, a decline in the price of gold could mean a slide in their revenues. Same thing goes for the commodity dollars like the Aussie, Kiwi, and the Swissy. Since these com-dolls have a positive correlation with gold, a decline in the price of the later could drag their prices as well or at least slow their gains.
Remember, you heard this first at LaidTrades.com.
Euro: Making A Move Against the Yen – July 28, 2010
Against the US dollar, the euro has been showing a lot of strength as of late (kindly see my post here). The EURJPY, on the other hand, was a pace or two behind. While the EURUSD was already moving north, its cousin was still stuck in consolidation mode. Just recently, though, the latter appears to have broken free. As you can see from the chart, the pair has just broken out from an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Now, will it follow the EURUSD? Will it be able to break above the long term downtrend line as well? In any case, its upside target as a result of the breakout is now seen to be at 120.00. A previous support and the downtrend line, however, lie at that level which will make it a notch tougher for the pair break. Nonetheless, a move above this could send up to 128.00. A failure to do so, on the flip side, could pull it back to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders.
Fundamentally, the expected uptick in Germany’s month-over-month CPI in July (from 0.1% to 0.2%) and in the euro zone’s year-over-year CPI in July as well (from 1.4% to 1.8%) could bolster the demand for the euro. Remember that the European Central Bank or the ECB uses inflation figures as a basis of their monetary policy. So with inflation, confidence, and the equities markets going up plus the apparent silence in the the euro zone with regards to their fiscal situation, the ECB could at least consider tightening their monetary stance sooner than initially seen.
In Japan, the 3.3% year-over-year projected jump in retail sales for the month of June could spark some short term risk taking in the Japanese markets, leading investors to sell or borrow some yen which we know has a very low cost of 0.10% to fund their investments in equities. At the same time, the continued slide in the country’s consumer prices (Tokyo CPI seen to be at -1.2%) could also place some selling pressure on the yen.
Surprise Earnings Bolstered the Shares of UBS – July 28, 2010
UBS, a diversified global financial services company, soared by 8.91% to $16.50 per share yesterday when the company reported a better-than-expected second quarter earnings. Sentiment on the stock was downbeat during the second quarter as evidenced by the stock’s decline because of the scare that was brought about by the debt crisis in the euro zone. Business especially among financial firms may have been subdued at that time because of the reluctance of the banks to trade and even lend out. Still, the bank, alongside some other banks like Deutsche, was able to beat the market’s earnings forecast.
The surprise upside in the company’s earnings caused its shares to gap up. As you can see from the chart, it actually beat the odds by breaking above the rising wedge formation instead of breaking down. Remember that a rising wedge is usually a bearish pattern which only indicate a rally prices. Yesterday’s price action, however, made me somewhat bullish on the stock now than before since the move allowed it to escape the 200-day moving average net. But with the RSI in the extreme overbought level, UBS could range or even retrace for awhile before making a move towards its previous high at just above 17.50. If it weakens, the resistance of the rising wedge, the bottom of the gap, and the 200-day moving average should keep it from falling any further.
Getting Back to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – July 27, 2010
Back in my last chart analysis on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (kindly check here), the index was still moving inside a descending channel after breaking down from the inverted flag formation. However, we have a different story now. As you can see in the chart provided, the SSEC managed to break above the descending channel’s resistance and the 2,500.00 marker due to good news such as positive earnings result from multi-billion dollar companies in the US. It could continue moving higher, though, it could still meet some resistance at 2,600.00. A break above that level could send it to 2,686.54. As the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite just passed above the 2,500.00 area, that former resistance could now act as the immediate support. So in case the index weakens again, the 2,500.00 marker could possibly hold its decline. But if the index drops below it, the next support would probably at 2,389.07.
Deutsche Profit Lifts Stocks – July 27, 2010
Deutsche Bank which really means “German Bank” or DB in the New York Stock Exchange reported a net income of $1.5 billion for the 2nd quarter of 2010. The wide array of financial products and services such as retail banking and fund management propelled the more than expected 10-digit quarterly profit for the German Bank. During yesterday’s trading session, its stock price closed at $66.18 with a 2% gain in the US market.
Chart-wise, the stocks are pointed to the north as it just broke out from a double bottom formation. In case it continues its ascend, the immediate resistance it could encounter is the $70.00 psychological area. If it moves past above that level, the next resistance could the $78.00-80.00 resistance area. On the downside, in case the stocks drop, the support could be $60.00. Upon further passing below the $60.00 could, the next support could be $54.14.
Bearish Outlook on the US dollar – July 27, 2010
Here’s an update of the US dollar index or the USDX which I last posted on July 15 (kindly see my last blog here). As you can see from the chart, the index has continued to weaken after it broke its long term uptrend line and [Read more...]
“Relax, It’s FedEx!” – July 27, 2010
The FedEx Corporation or the FDX in the New York stock Exchange is one of the major logistics company in the world. Like the UPS which I presented a few days back (kindly check my previous blog here) also gapped up following an upbeat earnings forecast. The shares of FedEx jumped by 4.5% to $82.58. The company now sees its earnings to expand to somewhere between $1.05 and $1.25 per share for its first fiscal quarter ending Aug. 31 which is up by at least 58 cents per share compared to a year earlier. The revaluation estimate is now also higher than the previous forecast of 85 cents to $1.05 per share. Given FDX’s robust forecast and UPS’ stellar earnings, its apparent that the global logistic business is gaining speed which also suggest that the global trade is now recovering very well.
As a result of FDX’s upbeat outlook, its shares gapped up and in the process also broke out from an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It likewise moved past several key resistances like the 50-day moving average, 200-day moving average, and the 82.50 mark. Given yesterday’s price action, FDX is now suddenly on track to previous support at $90.00. The level also corresponds to its upside target by projecting the height of the inverted head and shoulders from the point of breakout. In case it weakens, the 82.50 support and the 200-day MA are still there to keep it from falling any further. A break of these supports, though, could send it back down to 80.00 or even down at the bottom of the gap.
The Euro’s On a Bullish Track! – July 26, 2010
Good day forex friends! It’s been a long time since I last posted about FX but now I’m back! So here it is! In today’s canvas is an update of the EURUSD pair. As you can see from its daily chart, the euro has been recovering very well after it hit a low of around 1.1900 against the greenback back in June. Technically, the pair appears to have reversed already as evidenced by its breakout from an inverted head and shoulders pattern and its move past the long term downtrend line. While it is still quite possible for the EURUSD to turn south again, the chances of it moving higher, though, in my opinion, is now better than before. At present, the pair is trekking on an uptrend line. And as long as this line is left intact, the pair would most likely head higher. If it clears the 1.3000 resistance, it could aim for 1.3300. A break of the uptrend line, however, could send it back down to at least 1.2700.
Fundamentally, the expected increase in the GfK German Consumer Climate (from 3.5 to 3.6) and the probable hike in Germany’s as well as in the euro zone’s inflation figures could send the euro higher versus the greenback. Germany’s month-over-month CPI for July is seen to jump to 0.3% from 0.1% while the euro zone’s year-over-year consumer prices are also projected to rise by 1.7%, better than 1.4% logged during the previous month. The anticipated dip in Germany’s July unemployment rate (from 7.7% to 7.6%) could also send the euro higher. Given these projections plus the recent rally in the global markets, the confidence at least in the German market would have likely increased as well.
The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) To Rise Ahead of the RBNZ Rate Hike? – July 26, 2010
Hiyo peeps! On this post is the daily chart of the NZDUSD pair. As you can see, the pair has been generally trading sideways for the past several months now. Though for the past two months, it has been showing some promising upswings. After falling to a low of 0.6560 back in June, the pair has seen rallied all the way back to 0.7300. If only I was able to buy at June’s low, I would have netted about 740 pips already in just two months! Oh well. In any case, the pair now is approaching a critical resistance just above 0.7300. A failure to successfully clear this level could push it down near the short term uptrend line again which is somewhere around 0.7150. A break of the high just above 0.7300, on the other hand, could propel it to 0.7400, 0.7500, or even 0.7600.
On the economic front, it looks like the New Zealand dollar or the Kiwi would be on the bright side of things for this week. You see, on Wednesday at 9:00 pm GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected that it would raise its interest rates from 2.75% to 3.00%. While there is still an outside opportunity that the RBNZ would surprise the markets by not raising its rates, the NZD would still move higher at least up until the release of the central bank’s decision. From today until Wednesday, the market still has a lot of time to price in the projected rate hike. The recent rally in the global equities as well due partly to the stellar corporate earnings in the US could also ease the market’s tentativeness.
In any case, as what I’ve mentioned, the RBNZ could also postpone its rate hike due to New Zealand’s weaker-than-expected retail sales figures. New Zealand’s headline retail sales only grew by 0.4% during the last month compared to the 0.6% consensus. The country’s core retail sales likewise tallied a dismal 0.2% dip. Moreover, the softer-than-anticipated quarterly CPI of 0.3% could likewise factor in the bank’s decision to hold any rate increases. So if the bank does not hike, then the Kiwi would most likely take a hit.
Kimberly-Clark Weak 2nd Quarter Revenues but Profits Up! – July 26, 2010
Kimberly-Clark Corporation or KMB in the New York Stock Exchange is involved in manufacturing and marketing of health and hygiene products worldwide. They are the maker of Kleenex tissues and Huggies diapers that you see around groceries and convenient stores. Their revenue for the 2nd quarter of 2010 was weaker than expected. However, their net income rose by 24% which is a big help for them.
Upon the release of their 2nd quarter income report last week, their stocks went up by 1.08% to $63.64 per share. Chart-wise, there is a big upside potential for the stocks of Kimberly-Clark. Right now, the stock price is hanging right at its current resistance and could continue to head up. If that resistance cleared out, the next price mark could $70.03. On the downside, the current support is at the $60.00 area. If the the price drops further below that marker, the next support could be $58.25.
Nasdaq Composite Index Falling Wedge Break Out – July 25, 2010
The Nasdaq Composite Index or ^IXIC is a stock market index in the US that has over 3,000 listed technology and growth companies. Some of the notable companies listed here are google, yahoo and amazon. The more-than-expected earnings result last week of US based IT companies such as Apple Inc. helped lead the Nasdaq or the US market as a whole to higher territories. Another company that pushed the markets higher was United Parcel Service which reported an outstanding 2nd quarter profit (kindly check here to see my colleague’s post).
The last time I posted on this (kindly check here), the falling wedge was still forming. Now, as we can see in the chart, the resistance of the falling wedge set-up has already been cleared out. If the Nasdaq manages to climb higher, the next resistance it could encounter is 2,341.11. If the bulls empower the selling pressure once more at 2,341.11, the next resistance could be 2,434.29. On the flip side, if the value of the Nasdaq starts to decline, the immediate support it could drop to is 2,159.95. If it further slips below the 2,159.95 level, the next support could be the 2,061.14.
Phoenix Petroleum Breaks Out? – July 25, 2010
Hi guys! I’ve been observing Phoenix Petroleum Philippines, Inc. or PNX in the Philippine Stock Exchange for the past month (kindly check here for my last post about it). Now, the ascending triangle formation in its stock chart has broken out (indicated by the red circle) as its price passed above the 7.20 peso resistance two trading sessions ago. For those who do not know, this company is involved in trading refined petroleum, lubricants and other chemical products in the southern part of the Philippines. They also have service stations which cater to commercial vehicles in certain provinces. Anyway, getting back to the breakout, the next resistance Phoenix Petroleum could encounter is 8.00 pesos. Upon further breaching above level, the next resistance could be 8.70 pesos. On the downside, the triangle’s resistance at 7.20 pesos could now act as the immediate support for this Philippine based company. In case the price further drops below the 7.20 marker, the next support could be the 18-month uptrend.
UPS Broke Free! – July 23, 2010
The shares of United Parcel Service, the world’s largest package delivery company, or simply UPS in the New York Stock Exchange reversed for the better following yesterday’s price action. As you can see from the chart, the stock has gapped up and in the process also broke out from an inverted head and shoulders formation. At the same time, it likewise cut through both the resistances at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. At present, the the stock is sitting just above 63.00 support. It could range for a while between this level and 65.00 before moving higher. A break above 65.00 could send it up all the way to 69.00 or at its previous high just above 70.00. On the flip side, a move below the neckline could pull its price back to the bottom of the gap.
What caused the UPS’ rise was the company’s better-than-expected second quarter earnings. During the 2nd leg of this year, the company reported a 71% jump in its earnings from a year earlier. Revenue likewise rose by 13% during the period. What contributed to this upside were the 7% increase in its US domestic package business, 23% expansion in international packages, and 10 leap in its supply chain and freight operations. And as the global markets stabilize, the global trade business would only get better which would in turn be beneficial for the company.
AT&T Soared Due to iPhone Sales – July 23, 2010
AT&T Incorporated, the largest telecommunications company in the US, or T in the New York Stock Exchange topped the market’s earnings estimate due to the increased demand in iPhones. Thanks to its exclusive contract to sell the iPhone, the company was able to sell 3.2 million units of the phone and gained a net 496,000 contract subscribers. As a result, the company’s EPS upped the market’s $0.57 forecast with $0.61. Now, will AT&T be able to sustain its market share with the newly rolled out iPhone G4?
The company’s surprise upside in its second quarter earnings caused its stock to gap up. I’m even more bullish in the stock now since it also broke free from a double bottom pattern. Moreover, it was able to move above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as well. An RSI of more than 50 likewise indicates that its upward momentum is gaining speed. Given yesterday’s price action, the stock could aim for its previous high just above $26.25. But if it weakens, the bottom of the gap or the neckline should still keep it afloat.
German Stock Index Pumped Up by Positive News – July 22, 2010
The German Stock Index (Deutscher Aktien IndeX/^DAX/^GDAXI) went up by 2.53% to 6,142.15 as the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) numbers in the Euro-zone came in significantly above the expected. Another factor that bolstered the global markets’ ascend today are the impressive earning results of US companies such as Boeing, American Express, Caterpillar, Ford Motors, McDonalds, Microsoft, Amazon, ExxonMobil, Chevron and General Motors.
The chart of the German Stock Index is forming an ascending triangle formation and after a good trading session earlier the value is now pointed upwards. If this index pierces through the resistance of the triangle, the immediate target price could be 6,626.70. If the 6,626.70 marker gets cleared out, the next resistance could be 6,855.84. In case the bears come in and the index starts heading south, the immediate support could be the uptrend. If the value further slides below the uptrend, the next support could be 5,906.04.
